Publica la National Intelligence Council un informe sobre las tendencias del mundo en 2030, el estudio esta disponible en la red.www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends
En dicho informe de 116 páginas el apartado relativo a la salud que figura en la página 98 y siguientes ,nos habla del papel de la medicina predictiva en ese escenario de 2030.
Reproduzco este apartado.
José Miguel Rodríguez-Pardo.
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Disease
management technologies in development
promise
significant healthy longevity gains throughout
the world
while human augmentation technologies
will likely
transform everyday life, particularly for the
elderly and
mobility-impaired populations.
The
greatest gains in healthy longevity are likely
to occur in
those developing countries that will
experience
a huge growth in the size of their middle
class
populations. Although the current health-care
systems of
such countries may be poor, developing
countries
are expected to make substantial progress in
the
longevity potential of their populations by 2030.
Indeed,
many leading centers of innovation in disease
management
are likely to be in the East
DISEASE
MANAGEMENT
Disease
management is the effective control and
treatment
of communicable and noncommunicable
illnesses.
Today, physicians struggle to differentiate
between
many illnesses with similar symptoms.
Obtaining
results from detection tests can take
several
days, leading to delays in diagnosis, which
can be life
threatening. Consequently, diagnostic
and
pathogen-detection devices will be key enabling
technologies
for disease management; the future
accuracy of
molecular diagnostics has the power
to
transform medicine. The targets of molecular
diagnostics
include genetic information on disease
presence or
predisposition, and the ability to monitor
the
physical manifestation of a disease. One enabling
technology,
DNA sequencing, is advancing rapidly with
some
techniques currently capable of reading a human
genome for
about $1,000.
Molecular
diagnostic devices will revolutionize
medicine by
providing a rapid means of testing for
both
genetic and pathogenic diseases during surgeries.
Readily
available genetic testing will hasten disease
diagnosis
and help physicians decide on the optimal
treatment
for each patient. Such personalized medicine
will reduce
the health-care costs associated with
physicians’
prescribing ineffective drugs. In addition,
the
declining cost of such testing will facilitate
the
cataloguing of many more individuals’ genetic
profiles,
which will lead to a greater understanding
of the
genetic basis of many diseases. Theranostics,
the
combination of a diagnostic and a therapeutic
approach in
one treatment, may become an important
discipline
for disease management, reducing hospital
costs by
accelerating patients’ recovery times and
complications
caused by invasive surgery. Advances
in synthetic
biology will likely result in production
facilities
making novel treatments and diagnostics
agents.
Advances in regenerative medicine almost
certainly
will parallel these developments in diagnostic
and
treatment protocols. For example, replacement
organs,
such as kidneys and livers, could be developed
by 2030.
The new
disease management technologies will
increase
the longevity and quality of life for the world’s
aging
population, tipping the demographic profile
of many
countries toward an older (but healthy)
population.
However, improvements in disease
management
technologies could be out of reach of
poor people
in countries that do not have health
coverage
for all.
Cost is the
major barrier preventing molecular
diagnostic
technologies from becoming routinely
available
in physician’s surgeries, although costs
for genetic
sequencing are rapidly decreasing. The
cost per
individual diagnostic test is more important
than the
cost of the diagnostic equipment itself. A
move away
from expensive biological reagents to
silicon-based
molecular diagnostics procedures should
reduce the
costs of genetic tests further. The drawback
of today’s
genetic profiling is that the number of
known
disease-related genes is insufficient to provide
mass
screening. Synergistic technologies such as
computer
processing power and big data storage and
analysis
will be important for managing the huge
amounts of
data gathered by genome sequencing.
However,
with computing technology still advancing
at a high
rate computer power should not be a
rate-limiting
factor. Acquiring governments’ approval
for
diagnostic tests will delay their implementation.
HUMAN
AUGMENTATION
Spanning a
wide gamut of technologies, ranging from
implants
and prosthetics to powered exoskeletons,
human
augmentation enhances innate human abilities,
or replaces
missing or defective functions such as
damaged
limbs. Prosthetic limbs have now reached the
stage where
they offer equivalent or slightly improved
functionality
to human limbs. Brain-machine interfaces
in the form
of brain-implants are demonstrating that
directly
bridging the gap between brain and machine
is
possible. Military organizations are experimenting
with a wide
range of augmentation technologies,
including
exoskeletons that allow personnel to carry
increased
loads and psychostimulants that allow
personnel
to operate for longer periods.
Human
augmentation could allow civilian and military
people to
work more effectively, and in environments
that were
previously inaccessible. Elderly people
may benefit
from powered exoskeletons that assist
wearers
with simple walking and lifting activities,
improving
the health and quality of life for aging
populations.
Successful prosthetics probably will be
directly
integrated with the user’s body. Brain-machine
interfaces
could provide “superhuman” abilities,
enhancing
strength and speed, as well as providing
functions
not previously available.
As
replacement limb technology advances, people may
choose to
enhance their physical selves as they do with
cosmetic
surgery today. Future retinal eye implants
could
enable night vision, and neuro-enhancements
could
provide superior memory recall or speed of
thought.
Neuro-pharmaceuticals will allow people
to maintain
concentration for longer periods of
time or
enhance their learning abilities. Augmented
reality
systems can provide enhanced experiences
of
real-world situations. Combined with advances in
robotics,
avatars could provide feedback in the form of
sensors
providing touch and smell as well as aural and
visual
information to the operator
Owing to
the high cost of human augmentation,
it probably
will be available in 15-20 years only to
those who
are able to pay for it. Such a situation
may lead to
a two-tiered society of an enhanced and
non-enhanced
persons and may require regulation.
In
addition, the technology must be sufficiently
robust to
prevent hacking and interference of human
augmentation.
Advances in synergistic and enabling
technologies
are necessary for improved practicality
of human
augmentation technologies. For example,
improvements
in battery life will dramatically improve
the
practicality of exoskeleton use. Progress in
understanding
human memory and brain functions
will be
critical to future brain-machine interfaces,
while
advances in flexible biocompatible electronics
will enable
better integration with the recipient
of
augmentations and recreate or enhance sensory
experiences.
Moral and ethical challenges to human
augmentation
are inevitable
